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Charizard ex #223 Special Illustration Rare Pokemon Obsidian Flames: Should You Grade It? PSA 10 ROI 2026

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Grade now, hold raw, or sell? Charizard ex #223 is one of those decisions where each path has a very different expected value. As a longtime collector, I’m always looking for those sweet spots where a little bit of effort, like sending a card off to get graded, can yield significant returns. The Obsidian Flames set, while recent, has some real gems, and Charizard ex #223 Special Illustration Rare is definitely one of them. It’s got that classic Charizard appeal, wrapped in a visually striking art style that collectors crave. But is it worth the investment of grading? We’re going to break down the numbers to see if this particular Charizard ex #223 is poised to appreciate significantly once it’s encapsulated in a PSA 10 slab. At $115.90 raw and $799.50 PSA 10, grading this card yields $546.40 in expected profit at today’s fees.

• Current Market Data for Charizard ex

• The Break-Even Math

• Multi-Grader Comparison

• The Verdict

• Where to Buy

• Risks and Timing

• Frequently Asked Questions

Current Market Data for Charizard ex

Here’s a snapshot of what Charizard ex #223 is trading for across different grades, based on recent sales data. These numbers are crucial for understanding the potential upside. The premium for a PSA 10 grade is where the real profit lies for this particular card.

Sources: eBay sold data and PriceCharting, July 2026.

The Break-Even Math

Let’s dive into the numbers to see what it actually costs to grade and what you can expect to net. This is where we separate the dreamers from the realists. For this analysis, we’ll use the PSA Value Bulk grading fee of $25, assuming you’re sending in a stack of cards. If you’re sending just one or two, you might be looking at the PSA Value tier at $32.99 per card, which would slightly alter the profit margins.

First, calculate the net proceeds from selling a graded card: Net graded proceeds = PSA 10 Median Sale Price × 0.87 (estimated seller fees and marketplace commissions) - $5 (estimated shipping cost to buyer) Net graded proceeds = $799.50 × 0.87 - $5 Net graded proceeds = $695.57 - $5 Net graded proceeds = $690.57

Now, let’s factor in the grading fee. We’ll use the bulk rate for this calculation: Grading fee = $25

Next, we calculate the expected profit by subtracting your raw card cost and grading fee from the net graded proceeds: Expected profit = Net graded proceeds - (Raw price + Grading fee) Expected profit = $690.57 - ($115.90 + $25) Expected profit = $690.57 - $140.90 Expected profit = $549.67

This figure is crucial. It represents the potential profit before considering the accuracy of the grade you receive. The data shows a gross profit of $546.40, and our calculation of $549.67 is very close, accounting for slightly different fee estimations.

Now, let’s consider the break-even point. This is the raw price you could have paid for the card and still made your money back after grading and selling at the PSA 10 median. Break-even raw price = PSA 10 Median Sale Price × 0.87 - $5 (shipping) - Grading Fee Break-even raw price = $799.50 × 0.87 - $5 - $25 Break-even raw price = $695.57 - $5 - $25 Break-even raw price = $665.57

This means if you bought this Charizard ex #223 raw for $665.57 or less, and it came back a PSA 10, you would break even on the card itself (before accounting for the cost of your time or other potential fees). Buying at the current raw price of $115.90 is significantly below this break-even point, which is a very positive sign.

Let’s apply a realistic PSA 10 hit rate. Not every card submitted will achieve a Gem Mint 10. For a card like Charizard ex #223, I’d cautiously estimate a 40-60% chance of hitting a PSA 10, especially if you’re not meticulously checking centering and surface for every single card. Let’s use a 50% hit rate for this example:

Expected profit with 50% PSA 10 hit rate = (Net graded proceeds * 0.50) - (Raw price + Grading Fee) Expected profit with 50% PSA 10 hit rate = ($690.57 * 0.50) - ($115.90 + $25) Expected profit with 50% PSA 10 hit rate = $345.29 - $140.90 Expected profit with 50% PSA 10 hit rate = $204.39

Even with a conservative 50% hit rate, the expected profit for Charizard ex #223 remains substantial. This is a strong indicator that grading this card is a financially sound decision.

Multi-Grader Comparison

When we look at the data for Charizard ex #223, the premium commanded by a PSA 10 is clearly the highest among the available tiers. While a BGS 9.5 offers a decent 176.1% premium over raw and a CGC 10 offers a 202.0% premium, the PSA 10’s 591.9% premium is in a league of its own for this specific card. This suggests that the market places a significantly higher value on a PSA 10 grade for Charizard ex #223. If your goal is maximum profit, and you’re confident in your ability to hit a PSA 10 with a perfectly centered and clean card, then PSA is the clear path. For collectors focused on high grades but perhaps less concerned with the absolute peak premium, BGS 9.5 or CGC 10 still offer solid returns over the raw price, but the ROI is not as dramatic. Given the substantial difference, I’d recommend pursuing PSA 10 for this particular Charizard ex #223.

The Verdict

GRADE.

The numbers for Charizard ex #223 Special Illustration Rare from Obsidian Flames are incredibly compelling. At a raw price of $115.90 and a PSA 10 median of $799.50, the potential profit margin is substantial, even after accounting for grading fees and potential selling costs. The massive 591.9% premium for a PSA 10 grade is the primary driver here. This indicates strong market demand for Charizard ex #223 in top condition.

Even when factoring in a conservative 50% hit rate for PSA 10, the expected profit remains robust at over $200 per card. This makes it a highly attractive candidate for grading, especially compared to many other chase cards where the premium for a PSA 10 might only be a fraction of what’s seen here. The break-even point for buying raw is well below current market prices, offering a significant buffer.

Where to Buy

If you’re looking to pick up your own copies of Charizard ex #223 to grade, or simply want to add this stunning card to your collection, your best bet is to check online marketplaces. For graded examples, especially those seeking a PSA 10, eBay often has a wide selection of active listings.

Check active PSA 10 listings on eBay

For raw copies, TCGPlayer is a fantastic resource. They aggregate prices from multiple vendors, allowing you to find competitive deals on fresh, ungraded cards ready for submission. It’s always wise to compare prices and check seller reviews before making any purchase.

Browse raw copies on TCGPlayer

Risks and Timing

As with any investment in collectibles, there are inherent risks. The most significant one for grading is condition risk: not every card you submit will achieve a PSA 10. Factors like microscopic whitening on the edges, surface scratches, or off-centering can easily knock a card down to a PSA 9 or lower, drastically reducing its value. I’ve written more about how to assess Pokemon Card Centering Guide for Grading (2026) which can help mitigate this.

Then there’s turnaround time risk. While PSA offers different service levels, even expedited grading can take weeks or months. During this time, market values can fluctuate. If the market for Charizard ex #223 cools down while your card is in the grading queue, your potential profit could shrink. It’s why I often suggest looking at recent trends for similar cards, like the ones found in Greninja ex #214 Special Illustration Rare Pokemon Twilight Masquerade: Should You Grade It? PSA 10 ROI 2026.

The market for grading services also has its own ebb and flow. During peak times, grading fees can increase, and turnaround times can stretch significantly. Conversely, during slower periods, fees might be lower. The choice between grading companies – PSA, BGS, CGC – also presents a strategic decision, as explored in comparisons like PSA vs BGS vs CGC for Pikachu VMAX #188 Pokemon Vivid Voltage: Which Pays Most in 2026? and PSA vs BGS vs CGC for Lugia V #186 Pokemon Silver Tempest: Which Pays Most in 2026?. For Charizard ex #223, however, the data strongly points to PSA 10 as the most profitable path. Timing your submission to coincide with reasonable turnaround times and grading fees is always a smart play.

Pro Tip: Before submitting any card for grading, take high-resolution photos of the front and back. This serves as a valuable record of the card’s condition before it was sent, which can be useful for insurance purposes or if any disputes arise during the grading process. It’s also a great way to track your personal collection’s condition over time, akin to how one might How to Organize a Large Pokemon Card Collection (2026 Guide).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market value of a PSA 10 Charizard ex #223 from Obsidian Flames?

As of July 2026, the median sale price for a PSA 10 Charizard ex #223 Special Illustration Rare from Obsidian Flames is $799.50. This represents a significant premium over its raw value, making it a prime candidate for grading.

How much profit can I expect from grading a Charizard ex #223?

After accounting for the raw card cost of $115.90, a $25 grading fee, and estimated selling fees, the expected profit for a PSA 10 Charizard ex #223 is approximately $549.67. This figure assumes you successfully achieve a PSA 10 grade.

Is it worth grading a PSA 9 Charizard ex #223?

A PSA 9 Charizard ex #223 sells for a median of $145.00, which is only a slight increase over the raw price of $115.90. After grading fees, the profit for a PSA 9 is minimal to non-existent. The significant profit lies almost exclusively in achieving a PSA 10 grade.

Should I consider BGS or CGC for grading Charizard ex #223?

While BGS 9.5 and CGC 10 grades offer premiums over raw cards for Charizard ex #223 (276.1% and 302.0% respectively), the market demand and premium for a PSA 10 are substantially higher, at 591.9%. For maximum financial return, PSA is the recommended grading company for this card.

What is the break-even raw price for Charizard ex #223 to grade a PSA 10?

To break even on a Charizard ex #223 graded PSA 10, factoring in a $25 grading fee and estimated selling costs, you could have paid up to approximately $665.57 for the raw card. The current raw market price of $115.90 is well below this point.

How can I maximize my chances of getting a PSA 10 on Charizard ex #223?

To maximize your chances of a PSA 10, meticulously inspect the card for any surface imperfections, print defects, and most importantly, centering. Use resources like a Pokemon Card Centering Guide for Grading (2026) to understand what graders look for. Submitting cards that are demonstrably flawless is key. Also, be aware of how to How to Spot Fake Pokemon Cards (2026 Guide) before buying raw.

The data for Charizard ex #223 Special Illustration Rare from Obsidian Flames paints a clear picture: this is a card that strongly benefits from grading. The substantial premium commanded by a PSA 10 grade makes it a standout performer in the current market. While no investment is without risk, the mathematical probabilities and market trends for this specific Charizard ex #223 suggest that grading it and aiming for that coveted Gem Mint 10 is a strategic move for collectors looking to maximize their returns. For more insights into the world of Pokémon card investing and grading, explore our comprehensive guides at /pokemon-cards/ and our dedicated /card-grading/ hub.