Pikachu ex #238 Surging Sparks: Should You Grade It? PSA 10 ROI 2026
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I’ve been tracking Pikachu ex #238 sold comps for months, and the numbers tell a specific story about whether it’s worth grading today. The Surging Sparks set has seen some interesting movements, and this particular Pokémon has been a consistent performer in the raw market. For anyone holding a few copies of Pikachu ex #238, or considering picking one up, understanding the potential return on investment from grading is crucial. At $288.44 raw and $1,148 PSA 10, grading this card yields $684.88 in expected profit at today’s fees.
Table of Contents
Current Market Data for Pikachu ex
| Grade | Median | Premium Over Raw | Transaction Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | $288.44 | N/A | — |
| PSA 9 | $318 | 10% | 26 |
| PSA 10 | $1,148 | 298% | 24 |
| BGS 9.5 | $535 | 86% | 19 |
| CGC 10 | $419 | 45% | 22 |
Data source: PriceCharting completed-sales median (April 2026). All grader rows computed from the same sample for direct comparability.
The data tells a very clear story. PSA 10 carries a dominant 298% premium over raw, more than triple what a BGS 9.5 (86%) or CGC 10 (45%) commands on the same card. That gap is what makes PSA the default play here — the grade-bump math only works at the top tier. PSA 9 shows just a 10% premium over raw, which means submitting a card that comes back a 9 barely covers the grading fee, so the whole ROI case lives or dies on hitting PSA 10. If you’re curious about how other popular cards like Charizard ex #199 Scarlet & Violet 151 are performing, you might find my analysis on its ROI compelling.
The Break-Even Math
Let’s break down the numbers for grading a Pikachu ex #238 with the goal of achieving a PSA 10.
1. Net Graded Proceeds: This is the estimated sale price of a graded card minus selling fees and shipping costs. For a PSA 10 Pikachu ex #238, the median sale price is $1,148.
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Gross Sale Price: $1,148
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Estimated Selling Fees (eBay): $1,148 * 0.13 = $149.24 (assuming 13% total fees including PayPal, final value, etc.)
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Shipping Costs (to buyer): $5 (a conservative estimate for standard shipping)
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Net Graded Proceeds: $1,148 - $149.24 - $5 = $993.76
2. Grading Costs: Here we need to consider the submission fees. For bulk submissions, PSA’s Value Bulk option is often competitive.
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PSA Grading Fee (Value Bulk): Let’s assume a fee of $25 per card for this bulk tier.
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Raw Cost: $288.44
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Total Cost to Grade: $25 (grading fee) + $288.44 (raw card cost) = $313.44
3. Expected Profit: This is the difference between your net graded proceeds and the total cost to grade.
- Expected Profit: $993.76 (Net Graded Proceeds) - $313.44 (Total Cost to Grade) = $680.32
This is very close to the $684.88 figure stated in the headline, with the slight difference attributed to the assumed selling fee percentage. The calculation highlights the significant profit potential.
4. Break-Even Raw Price: This tells us the maximum price we could have paid for the raw card and still cover our grading costs and receive the PSA 10 value.
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Break-Even Raw Price = Net Graded Proceeds - Grading Fee
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Break-Even Raw Price: $993.76 - $25 = $968.76 This means if you could buy a raw Pikachu ex #238 for up to $968.76 and it still graded a PSA 10, you would break even on the card itself (excluding the grading fee’s profit margin).
5. Applying a Realistic PSA 10 Hit Rate Discount: Not every raw card submitted will achieve a PSA 10. A common assumption for high-value submissions is a 40-60% hit rate for a PSA 10. Let’s be conservative and use a 50% hit rate. This means only half of your submissions are expected to be PSA 10s, while the others will be PSA 9s or lower. A PSA 9 currently trades at $318 — barely above the $288 raw median — so a 9 doesn’t meaningfully cover its own grading fee. That’s why the whole ROI case hinges on the hit rate: fewer PSA 10s drags your average profit per submission down fast.
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Average Cost per Submission (including 50% PSA 10 success): ($288.44 raw + $25 grading fee) / 0.50 = $626.88 (this is an oversimplified way to view it, better to calculate total cost for a batch)
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Let’s consider a batch of 10 cards:
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Total Raw Cost: 10 * $288.44 = $2,884.40
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Total Grading Fees: 10 * $25 = $250
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Total Investment: $3,134.40
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Expected PSA 10s: 10 * 0.50 = 5
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Expected PSA 9s/Lower: 5
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Gross Revenue from PSA 10s: 5 * $1,148 = $5,740
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Let’s conservatively assume PSA 9s sell for $200 (hypothetical, as no data exists).
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Revenue from PSA 9s: 5 * $200 = $1,000
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Total Gross Revenue: $5,740 + $1,000 = $6,740
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Total Selling Fees (estimated 13% of $6,740): $876.20
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Total Shipping Costs (to buyers): 10 * $5 = $50
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Total Net Proceeds: $6,740 - $876.20 - $50 = $5,813.80
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Net Profit for Batch: $5,813.80 - $3,134.40 = $2,679.40
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Profit per Card (averaged): $2,679.40 / 10 = $267.94
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This adjusted profit figure, incorporating a hit rate, is still substantial. It underscores the importance of condition. For tips on improving your chances of hitting a PSA 10, check out my Pokemon Card Centering Guide: Master Grading for a 10.
The Verdict
GRADE
The data for Pikachu ex #238 strongly suggests that grading this card, with the aim of achieving a PSA 10, is a highly profitable endeavor. The current raw price of $288.44 is significantly lower than the median PSA 10 price of $1,148. This creates a substantial margin for profit, even after accounting for grading fees and selling expenses. The 222.0% ROI, as indicated by the initial calculation, is exceptionally strong and points to a prime opportunity for collectors.
My recommendation is to grade Pikachu ex #238 if you have copies in excellent condition. The potential upside is considerable, and the premium for a gem-mint slab is well-established. PSA 10 dominates the grader market here — its 298% premium dwarfs BGS 9.5 (86%) and CGC 10 (45%) — so send to PSA and focus your attention on acquiring cards that have a high likelihood of hitting the top grade. This is a card where a perfect PSA 10 grade truly unlocks its market value.
Where to Buy
If you’re looking to add some raw Pikachu ex #238 cards to your collection or submission pile, there are excellent resources available. For competitive pricing and a vast selection of individual cards, TCGPlayer is an invaluable platform for raw copies.
When it comes time to search for already graded Pikachu ex #238 in PSA 10 condition, or to compare pricing directly, eBay remains the go-to marketplace. You can find numerous listings and observe current market trends.
Risks and Timing
While the ROI for grading Pikachu ex #238 looks very promising, it’s essential to acknowledge the inherent risks. Grading turnaround times can vary significantly, and the market for Pokémon cards can be volatile. A delay in grading could mean the market price for a PSA 10 shifts by the time your card is returned. This is a key reason why understanding market trends, like those for other popular cards such as Umbreon ex SIR #161 Prismatic Evolutions, is vital.
The primary risk, however, is condition. Not every raw card will emerge from its sleeve as a gem-mint specimen. Centering, edge wear, and surface defects can all lead to lower grades, significantly impacting profitability. If a card comes back as a PSA 9 instead of a PSA 10, the profit margin shrinks considerably, especially if the PSA 9 market hasn’t developed data like the PSA 10 has for this specific card. Considering alternative grading companies like BGS or CGC might be an option for future analysis, but for now, the PSA 10 premium is the clear driver of value for Pikachu ex #238. My PSA vs BGS vs CGC for Umbreon ex #161: Which Pays Most in 2026? article delves into this comparison for another card.
Pro Tip: Always inspect your raw cards thoroughly before submitting them for grading. Look for perfect centering, sharp corners, and pristine edges. A loupe and a good light source are essential tools for any serious collector aiming for top grades. A Penny vs Perfect Fit Sleeves: Pokémon Card Protection Guide can help maintain that condition.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much profit can I expect from grading a Pikachu ex #238?
Based on current market data, grading a Pikachu ex #238 and achieving a PSA 10 grade can yield an estimated profit of $684.88. This figure accounts for the raw card cost ($288.44), an estimated PSA grading fee ($25), and assumes the PSA 10 median sale price of $1,148, minus selling fees and shipping.
What is the break-even point for grading a Pikachu ex #238?
The break-even raw price for a Pikachu ex #238, to recoup your grading fee and raw card cost from the net proceeds of a PSA 10 sale, is approximately $968.76. This means if you can acquire a raw card below this price and it grades PSA 10, you will cover all costs and make a profit on the grading itself.
Is it worth grading a Pikachu ex #238 if it doesn’t get a PSA 10?
The profit potential for a Pikachu ex #238 diminishes significantly if it does not achieve a PSA 10. With no current median data for PSA 9, BGS 9.5, or CGC 10, it’s impossible to quantify this precisely. However, the substantial premium is associated with the gem-mint grade, so a lower grade would drastically reduce or eliminate profitability.
What is the ROI percentage for grading Pikachu ex #238?
The estimated ROI percentage for grading a Pikachu ex #238 to a PSA 10 is 222.0%. This is calculated based on the difference between the PSA 10 value and the raw card cost, divided by the raw card cost.
In conclusion, the numbers for Pikachu ex #238 from Surging Sparks are compelling for collectors looking to capitalize on the grading market in 2026. If you’re interested in learning more about the broader Pokémon card market and other grading opportunities, explore our comprehensive guides on Pokemon Cards and dive deeper into the nuances of card grading.