Pikachu ex SIR #238 Surging Sparks: Should You Grade It? PSA 10 ROI 2026
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The sold comps on Pikachu ex #238 tell a specific story about whether it’s worth grading today. The Surging Sparks set has seen some interesting movements, and this particular Pokémon has been a consistent performer in the raw market. For anyone holding a few copies of Pikachu ex #238, or considering picking one up, understanding the potential return on investment from grading is crucial. At $288.44 raw and $1,148 PSA 10, grading this card yields $621.63 in expected profit at today’s fees, a 168.7% ROI.
Table of Contents
Current Market Data for Pikachu ex
| Grade | Median | Premium Over Raw | Transaction Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | $288.44 | N/A | — |
| PSA 9 | $318 | 10% | 26 |
| PSA 10 | $1,148 | 298% | 24 |
| BGS 9.5 | $535 | 86% | 19 |
| CGC 10 | $419 | 45% | 22 |
Data source: PriceCharting completed-sales median (April 2026). All grader rows computed from the same sample for direct comparability.
The data tells a very clear story. PSA 10 carries a dominant 298% premium over raw, more than triple what a BGS 9.5 (86%) or CGC 10 (45%) commands on the same card. That gap is what makes PSA the default play here — the grade-bump math only works at the top tier. PSA 9 shows just a 10% premium over raw, which means a card that comes back a 9 nets $270.46 after eBay’s fee and shipping, less than the $288.44 raw cost before any grading fee, so the whole ROI case lives or dies on hitting PSA 10. If you’re curious about how other popular cards like Charizard ex #199 Scarlet & Violet 151 are performing, you might find our analysis on its ROI compelling.
| Grade | Sold median | Tier & fee | Turnaround | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 | $1,148 | Priority $79.99 | 70-80 business days | $621.63 | 168.7% |
| CGC 10 | $419 | Economy $20.00 | 90 working days | $49.64 | 16.1% |
| BGS 9.5 | $535 | Express $79.95 | 15 business days | $90.32 | 24.5% |
Fees from each grader's own site, checked Oct 12, 2026. PSA's Value tiers are paused. Beckett is taking Express submissions only. eBay trading-card fee: 13.25% up to $7,500, 2.35% above, plus $0.40 per order. Shipping is an estimate. Prices are recent sold medians. The tier is set by the card's value; PSA publishes no fee above $10,000.
The Break-Even Math
Let’s break down the numbers for grading a Pikachu ex #238 with the goal of achieving a PSA 10.
1. Net Graded Proceeds: This is the estimated sale price of a graded card minus selling fees and shipping costs. For a PSA 10 Pikachu ex #238, the median sale price is $1,147.50.
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Gross Sale Price: $1,147.50
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eBay Selling Fee: ($1,147.50 * 0.1325) + $0.40 = $152.44 (eBay’s trading card rate: 13.25% up to $7,500 plus $0.40 per order)
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Shipping Costs (to buyer): $5 (an estimate)
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Net Graded Proceeds: $1,147.50 - $152.44 - $5 = $990.06
2. Grading Costs: PSA sets the tier by declared value, which for a PSA 10 is its graded value. PSA’s Value tiers (including Value Bulk) have been paused since June 2, 2026, and a $1,147.50 card is above Standard’s $1,000 cap, so the cheapest open tier is Priority (fees checked October 12, 2026).
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PSA Grading Fee (Priority, up to $1,500): $79.99
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Raw Cost: $288.44
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Total Cost to Grade: $79.99 (grading fee) + $288.44 (raw card cost) = $368.43
3. Expected Profit: This is the difference between your net graded proceeds and the total cost to grade.
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Expected Profit: $990.06 (Net Graded Proceeds) - $368.43 (Total Cost to Grade) = $621.63
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ROI: $621.63 / $368.43 = 168.7%
4. Break-Even Raw Price: This is the maximum price you could have paid for the raw card and still cover the grading fee and selling costs on a PSA 10 sale.
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Break-Even Raw Price = Net Graded Proceeds - Grading Fee
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Break-Even Raw Price: $990.06 - $79.99 = $910.07 This means if you could buy a raw Pikachu ex #238 for up to $910.07 and it graded a PSA 10, you would break even.
5. What Happens Below a PSA 10: Not every raw card submitted will achieve a PSA 10. A PSA 9 currently trades at $318, barely above the $288.44 raw median. After eBay’s fee and shipping, a $318 sale nets $270.46, less than the raw cost before the grading fee is even counted, so a copy that comes back a 9 loses money. That’s why the whole ROI case hinges on condition. For tips on improving your chances of hitting a PSA 10, check out our Pokemon Card Centering Guide: Master Grading for a 10.
The Verdict
GRADE
The data for Pikachu ex #238 strongly suggests that grading this card, with the aim of achieving a PSA 10, is a highly profitable endeavor. The current raw price of $288.44 is significantly lower than the median PSA 10 price of $1,148. This creates a substantial margin for profit, even after accounting for grading fees and selling expenses. The 168.7% ROI at PSA’s $79.99 Priority tier is exceptionally strong and points to a prime opportunity for collectors.
Our recommendation is to grade Pikachu ex #238 if you have copies in excellent condition. The potential upside is considerable, and the premium for a gem-mint slab is well-established. PSA 10 dominates the grader market here — its 298% premium dwarfs BGS 9.5 (86%) and CGC 10 (45%) — so send to PSA and focus your attention on acquiring cards that have a high likelihood of hitting the top grade. This is a card where a perfect PSA 10 grade truly unlocks its market value.
Where to Buy
If you’re looking to add some raw Pikachu ex #238 cards to your collection or submission pile, there are excellent resources available. For competitive pricing and a vast selection of individual cards, TCGPlayer is an invaluable platform for raw copies.
When it comes time to search for already graded Pikachu ex #238 in PSA 10 condition, or to compare pricing directly, eBay remains the go-to marketplace. You can find numerous listings and observe current market trends.
Risks and Timing
While the ROI for grading Pikachu ex #238 looks very promising, it’s essential to acknowledge the inherent risks. Grading turnaround times can vary significantly, and the market for Pokémon cards can be volatile. A delay in grading could mean the market price for a PSA 10 shifts by the time your card is returned. This is a key reason why understanding market trends, like those for other popular cards such as Umbreon ex SIR #161 Prismatic Evolutions, is vital.
The primary risk, however, is condition. Not every raw card will emerge from its sleeve as a gem-mint specimen. Centering, edge wear, and surface defects can all lead to lower grades, significantly impacting profitability. If a card comes back as a PSA 9 instead of a PSA 10, it loses money: the $318 PSA 9 median nets $270.46 after eBay’s fee and shipping, below the $288.44 raw cost. BGS and CGC stay profitable but far behind: a BGS 9.5 ($535) returns $90.32 (24.5% ROI) at Beckett’s $79.95 Express tier, and a CGC 10 ($419) returns $49.64 (16.1% ROI) at CGC’s $20 Economy tier, so the PSA 10 premium is the clear driver of value for Pikachu ex #238. Our PSA vs BGS vs CGC for Umbreon ex #161: Which Pays Most in 2026? article delves into this comparison for another card.
Pro Tip: Always inspect your raw cards thoroughly before submitting them for grading. Look for perfect centering, sharp corners, and pristine edges. A loupe and a good light source are essential tools for any serious collector aiming for top grades. A Penny vs Perfect Fit Sleeves: Pokémon Card Protection Guide can help maintain that condition.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much profit can I expect from grading a Pikachu ex #238?
Based on current market data, grading a Pikachu ex #238 and achieving a PSA 10 grade can yield an estimated profit of $621.63. This figure accounts for the raw card cost ($288.44), PSA’s $79.99 Priority grading fee (the cheapest open tier for a card valued over $1,000 and up to $1,500), and the $1,147.50 PSA 10 median sale price minus eBay’s 13.25% fee plus $0.40 and an estimated $5 shipping.
What is the break-even point for grading a Pikachu ex #238?
The break-even raw price for a Pikachu ex #238, to recoup your grading fee and raw card cost from the net proceeds of a PSA 10 sale, is $910.07. This means if you can acquire a raw card below this price and it grades PSA 10, you will cover all costs and make a profit on the grading itself.
Is it worth grading a Pikachu ex #238 if it doesn’t get a PSA 10?
No. A PSA 9 sells for $318, which nets $270.46 after eBay’s fee and an estimated $5 shipping, less than the $288.44 raw cost before the grading fee is even counted. A BGS 9.5 ($535) or CGC 10 ($419) stays profitable, at $90.32 and $49.64 respectively, but well below the $621.63 a PSA 10 returns.
What is the ROI percentage for grading Pikachu ex #238?
The estimated ROI percentage for grading a Pikachu ex #238 to a PSA 10 is 168.7%. That is the expected profit ($621.63, after PSA’s $79.99 Priority fee, eBay’s 13.25% fee plus $0.40, and an estimated $5 shipping) divided by the total cost of $368.43 ($288.44 raw + $79.99 grading).
In conclusion, the numbers for Pikachu ex #238 from Surging Sparks are compelling for collectors looking to capitalize on the grading market in 2026. If you’re interested in learning more about the broader Pokémon card market and other grading opportunities, explore our comprehensive guides on Pokemon Cards and dive deeper into the nuances of card grading.