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2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani PSA + CGC Pop Report: Rarity vs Price 2026

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The 2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani graded PSA 10 commands a $315.00 median price, representing a significant multiplier over its raw $149.08 price, signaling strong demand for top-tier condition. With only a single CGC 9 graded copy publicly recorded, this card presents an immediate opportunity to establish a dominant position in a nascent market.

The 90-day median PSA 10 for Shohei Ohtani #1 is a hard number at $315.00. The raw floor is another at $149.08. The gap between them is your entire thesis, suggesting a robust demand for top-graded Ohtani cards from this premium release. Currently, the population data is extremely thin, with only one CGC graded copy (a 9) publicly available. This scarcity, coupled with Ohtani’s unparalleled superstar status, positions this card for significant appreciation, particularly as more copies are submitted for grading and establish a clearer PSA pop report. Last updated: June 2026.

In This Article

• The Population Report

• Reading the Scarcity Signal

• Rarity × Demand Quadrant

• What the Pop Data Says About Grading New Copies

• The Verdict

• Where to Buy

The Population Report

1 total graded across PSA and CGC (0 PSA + 1 CGC), median PSA 10 sells for $315.00.

Data sources: What The Slab checks eBay sold comps, PriceCharting market prices, and PriceCharting pop pages (PSA + CGC), plus PSA public API. All figures as of June 2026.

Reading the Scarcity Signal

The current population report for the 2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani is extraordinarily limited, with only one graded card publicly documented—a CGC 9. This means the Gem Mint 10 population remains at zero, making any future PSA 10 a significant addition to the overall graded supply. Without a substantial number of graded submissions, it is impossible to definitively assess the gem-mint rate or the card’s true scarcity tier. For context, consider the 2025 Bowman Baseball #1 Jack Leiter, which, despite being a more mass-produced set, has a much larger graded population, illustrating the vast difference in market saturation. Similarly, a highly sought-after player like Ohtani in a premium set like Transcendent will naturally attract a high level of demand, but until more copies are graded, the scarcity signal is exceptionally strong due to the near-absence of graded examples.

Rarity × Demand Quadrant

This Shohei Ohtani card sits squarely in the “low pop + high demand” quadrant. The rarity is through the roof due to the near-nonexistent graded population, with only a single CGC 9 currently on record. Simultaneously, Ohtani’s global appeal and his status as the face of baseball ensure immense demand. This combination is the holy grail for collectors and investors: extreme scarcity meeting overwhelming popularity. Cards in this quadrant often experience rapid price appreciation as more collectors vie for the limited supply of high-grade examples. The significant gap between the raw price and the PSA 10 median, even with minimal pop data, highlights this demand-driven valuation.

What the Pop Data Says About Grading New Copies

With a current population of only one graded card (CGC 9) and no PSA 10s recorded, the 2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani is far from pop-saturated. Each new PSA 10 graded copy will represent a substantial percentage increase in the available supply of top-tier examples, meaning even a small influx of gems could significantly impact the market dynamics. For collectors holding raw copies of this card, submitting them for grading presents a compelling opportunity. If a raw card can be acquired for approximately $149.08, and factoring in a $25 grading fee and approximately 13% in fees for potential resale, the break-even point to sell at the current PSA 10 median of $315.00 is highly achievable. A PSA 10 would need to be acquired for under $253 ($315 - $25 grading - $37 fees = $253). This suggests a healthy grading ROI if the card’s condition warrants a top grade. The potential for establishing a dominant position in the PSA pop report for this card is very real.

The Verdict

BUY. The 2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani is a prime candidate for acquisition, especially in top condition. With only one graded copy (a CGC 9) in the public record and no PSA 10s yet certified, the scarcity of this card in a graded state is astronomically high. This, combined with Shohei Ohtani’s status as arguably the most recognizable and marketable baseball player globally, creates a perfect storm of rarity and demand. The current PSA 10 median of $315.00, against a raw price of $149.08, clearly indicates that the market is already valuing premium condition significantly higher, even with minimal population data to support it.

This card is poised for significant appreciation as grading submissions increase and establish a more robust population report. For those looking to capitalize on the burgeoning market for Ohtani’s premium cards, acquiring this card now, particularly if you can find raw copies in excellent condition for grading, offers substantial upside. The low barrier to entry for a PSA 10, relative to the potential future value, makes it an attractive buy. Consider this the ground floor on what is likely to become an iconic card for one of baseball’s modern legends.

Where to Buy

Check active graded listings on eBay

When looking to acquire the 2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani, eBay remains the primary marketplace for both raw and graded copies. For collectors targeting a graded example, specifically a PSA 10, diligent searching will be key given the current scarcity. Setting up saved searches and alerts on eBay can help notify you immediately when new listings appear. For raw copies, focus on sellers with strong reputations and examine the provided images meticulously, looking for indicators of strong centering, clean edges, and surface condition to maximize your chances of achieving a PSA 10 grade. Remember to always factor in shipping costs and potential import duties if purchasing internationally.

Pro Tip: Given the extremely low graded population and the premium nature of the Topps Transcendent set, focus on acquiring raw copies that exhibit exceptional condition. Look for cards with perfect or near-perfect centering and minimal edge or surface flaws. Even a slight whitening on the edges or microscopic print dots can prevent a Gem Mint 10, so be exceptionally critical in your raw card assessment. This diligence will be paramount for maximizing your grading return on investment.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current PSA 10 population for the 2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani?

As of June 2026, the publicly recorded PSA 10 population for the 2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani is zero. Only one graded copy, a CGC 9, is currently listed in available population reports.

How does the raw price compare to the PSA 10 median?

The raw price for the 2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani is approximately $149.08, while the median price for a PSA 10 is $315.00. This represents a significant premium for the top-graded condition, more than doubling the raw value.

Is it worth grading the 2025 Topps Transcendent #1 Shohei Ohtani?

Yes, grading this card is highly recommended if you possess a raw copy in excellent condition. With no PSA 10s currently graded and Ohtani’s immense popularity, achieving a Gem Mint 10 could lead to substantial appreciation and a strong grading return on investment, given the current market prices.

Where can I find population data for sports cards?

Population data for sports cards, including PSA and CGC graded copies, can typically be found on the official websites of the grading companies themselves, as well as on third-party aggregation sites like PriceCharting, which compiles data from various sources.

Should I buy graded or raw copies of this card?

Given the current scarcity of graded copies, buying a raw card and submitting it for grading is potentially the most rewarding strategy for long-term value if you can identify a clean example. However, if a PSA 10 listing becomes available and fits your budget, it offers immediate possession of the highest-demand grade.

What makes the 2025 Topps Transcendent set special?

The Topps Transcendent set is a high-end, exclusive release typically featuring an ultra-limited checklist with autograph and memorabilia inserts, often including one-of-a-kind “Transcendent” cards. Its premium status and low print run contribute to the high demand for its key cards, such as the #1 Shohei Ohtani.

For more insights into the world of sports card collecting and investing, explore our comprehensive guides on Sports Cards and learn more about the nuances of Card Grading.